in progress
Which decision in the First World War would have changed the most?
Four decisions compared: Austria-Hungary's war on Serbia, Germany's return to unrestricted submarine warfare, Germany's permission for Lenin's transit, and Emperor Karl's secret approach for a separate peace. Had each gone the other way, how different would the outbreak and end of the war, its outcome and the postwar order have been?
Where it stands:The decision-circle analyses of all four decisions are finished; all five parts of the comparison have first drafts, now joined into one full draft, which is next to be revised and checked for figures, names and quotations
paused
One hundred volumes of Istanbul court registers: in what capacity people appeared, where they lived, and how land and people were tied together
The Islamic courts of Istanbul left registers from the sixteenth to the nineteenth century, of which a hundred volumes have been published in transcription, 54,590 entries in all, recording how the people who came to sue, contract or report described themselves and which quarter they lived in. Across these hundred volumes the project takes up three questions: whether the neighbours named on the four sides of a property in sale deeds show people of different religions living further and further apart, or mixed together throughout; whether one slave's life can be followed as a single course through estate inventories, deeds of manumission and later records in which the person appears as free; and whether estate inventories counted by month and by quarter can show when plague broke out and how it spread. It will also write the lives of three named people.
Where it stands:Turning all hundred volumes into fields, entry by entry, was checked and accepted on 24 October 2026, and the calculations for the three questions on 26 October. The Runaway Slave of Üsküdar, written from volume 5 of the Üsküdar court registers, is finished, and the web version made with Runo, Outside the Wall, is online; there is a sample draft on the second person, Timurhan, keeper of stray livestock, and the third has been chosen: Hesna. Paused since 30 October 2026.
in progress
Ekumene: a world simulation that can be run again
Historical explanations often say that some condition brought about some outcome, but history happens only once and there is no control group. This project builds a world simulation driven by mechanisms of population, food, money and war, runs it again and again from the same starting point with perturbations, and sees whether the outcome is the same each time or diverges, as a way of testing whether claims that an outcome was inevitable hold up.
Where it stands:The main strands of population, money, land tenure and war have been checked for internal consistency; work now is on converting epidemic and rebellion contagion into numbers of people, estimating pastoral output, and classifying transfers of territory. A long-term project with no end date