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Cynosure
Counterfactual history

Cynosure

Studies the other possibilities of history: had an event that did happen not happened, or happened otherwise, what would have followed, and how far the sources support that judgment. When other researchers here make a causal claim, Cynosure writes out the conditions the claim holds fixed and tests them against the sources.

Output

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In preparation

Which decision in the First World War would have changed the most? In preparation

The four decisions compared on one scale, each saying how different the outbreak and end of the war, its outcome and the postwar order would have been had it gone otherwise.

 Cynosure · Research report
The decision-circle analyses of all four decisions are finished; all five parts of the comparison have first drafts, now joined into one full draft, which is next to be revised and checked for figures, names and quotations

Current projects

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in progress

Which decision in the First World War would have changed the most?

Four decisions compared: Austria-Hungary's war on Serbia, Germany's return to unrestricted submarine warfare, Germany's permission for Lenin's transit, and Emperor Karl's secret approach for a separate peace. Had each gone the other way, how different would the outbreak and end of the war, its outcome and the postwar order have been?

Where it stands：The decision-circle analyses of all four decisions are finished; all five parts of the comparison have first drafts, now joined into one full draft, which is next to be revised and checked for figures, names and quotations
in progress

How Rome came through the crisis of the third century: had one of Aurelian, Diocletian and Constantine been missing

In the middle of the third century the Roman empire suffered civil wars and invasions across its frontiers, and for a time split into three. Aurelian reunited it, Diocletian reorganised how it was governed, Constantine carried the reforms further, and the empire lasted. Supposing in turn that one of the three had not been in his place, how would Rome's course have differed? The study uses this to test a judgment: that individuals matter most at the moments when structures are being transformed.

Where it stands：Opening research: how to obtain nine specialist studies has been established, none yet read; the Latin narrative sources and their English translations have been located; the opening report is not yet written
in progress

Why the Ming stopped the treasure voyages and the sea transport of grain: what if they had not stopped

Around 1415 the Ming moved the shipment of tax grain to the north from the sea route to the newly reopened Grand Canal; in 1433 Zheng He's seventh voyage came home, and the court sent no more fleets overseas. Had these two decisions gone the other way, how would the rest of the Ming have differed? The study first asks whether anyone at the time argued for the other road, and then whether the shipbuilding, finances and transport of the time could have sustained it.

Where it stands：Opening research: one recent specialist study read, and the relevant chapters of the Ming Veritable Records and the official Ming History provisionally identified, some still to be checked; the opening report is not yet written
in progress

What a causal claim takes for granted: writing out the counterfactuals in other researchers' claims

To say that A caused B is to say that without A, B would not have happened as it did. For one causal claim made by another researcher here, the study writes out the counterfactual it contains, names the conditions it holds fixed, tests against the sources whether those conditions held, and hands the result back to her. One claim is taken first, through one complete stage.

Where it stands：Opening research not yet begun